WHAT is it?

1. Prediction-Observation-Explanation, POE, is a technique in the constructivist approach that helps students find alternative solutions to complex problems by connecting and configuring their prior knowledge with what they have just learned and helping them absorb knowledge (Köseet al., 2003). It is also beneficial in project-based learning within a social context where students are expected to design a solution for a problem through scientific research methods (Calis & Yildirim, 2020).
   
2. In the prediction stage, students are asked to make predictions regarding the specific topic or the topic-related activities and explain their predictions with reasons.
   
3. In the observation stage, students are invited to observe the event related to their predictions. The observations could be in the form of user interviews, site observations, site visits, or user surveys.
   
4. In the explanation stage, students are asked to compare their predictions with their observations and carry out an investigation to explain the differences and similarities between them, aiming to eliminate conflicting situations.

WHY use it?

Sometimes, students may have strong intuitions about some topics (e.g. social issues/problems). POE is a suitable tool that provides a framework to guide students through the scientific research method to view the problem and come up with the solution accurately, especially in between the “Discover” and “Define” phases of design thinking.

HOW to do it?

Step of using the POE:

1. During a social innovation project, before the observation/user interview/ield study task, introduce the Predict – Observe – Explain (POE) protocol to the students.
2. Present students with the situation or activity that they are going to participate in. Ask them to imagine the scenario and make predictions of the users’ needs and the reasons behind those needs. Ask students to record their predictions in the left column.
3. After students have made their predictions, ask them to conduct observations through user interviews, site visits, or site research. Encourage students to use diagrams and drawings if necessary. Ask students to record all of their observations in the middle column, and separate if their initial predictions were supported (true) or not supported (False). Explain to students that False predictions may come from assumptions or intuitive thoughts.
4. After completing the observation activity, ask students to discuss and analysis the contextual explanations of the phenomenon, and do necessary research to support their explanations (find the root causes).
   

References

Calis, D., & Yildirim, H. I. (2020). The Effect of Prediction, Observation, Explanation Supported Project-Based Environmental Education on the Levels of Attitude and Behavior Toward the Environment. Educational Policy Analysis and Strategic Research, 15(1), 22-43.
Köse, S., Coştu, B. & Keser, Ö. F. (2003). Identifying misconceptions in science subjects: POE method and sample activities. Journal of PAU Education Faculty, 13(1). 43-53.